Christian Debt Recovery

Greece Debt To Gdp Chart

September 23rd, 2007 |

Author: Gavin

AceTrader-Daily Market Outlook -30-5-2011

Market Review – 27/05/2011 21:11 GMT

Euro rallies on easing of euro zone debt concerns and broad-based dollar weakness

Euro rallied on Friday as euro zone debt concerns eased and the greenback weakened against its major counterparts after the release of much weaker-than-expected U.S. pending home sales.

The single currency initially jumped ahead of Asian opening and then climbed to 1.4278 in Tokyo lunch session due to active short-covering on speculation that U.S. economic growth was slowing before retreating strongly to 1.4184 in European morning on concerns over the Greek government’s ability to win support for severe austerity measures, however, active cross-buying in euro helped price stage a rebound and euro later ratcheted higher to a one-week high of 1.4325 near New York closing as comments out of Europe suggested Greece should be able to handle its heavy debt load, while the greenback’s broad-based weakness after the release of much weaker-than-expected U.S. April pending home sales (April figure plunged 11.6% versus economists’ forecast of a 1% drop) also supported the single currency.

The British pound continued to rally on Friday on speculation of rate hike after Bank of England Deputy Governor Paul Tucker expressed worries about inflation on Thursday, cable ratcheted higher to 1.6461 in European morning before easing on profit taking. The pound then ratcheted higher to two-week high of 1.6515 near New York closing after realease of much weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data.

The greenback and euro fell against the Swiss franc on Friday from 0.8662 and 1.2255 to a fresh record low of 0.8462 and 1.2100 respectively as strong reading of Swiss KOF indicator (May figure came in at 2.30 versus market’s forecast of 2.20) boosted speculation that Swiss interest rates would rise in the coming months.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback extended recent decline and tounched a session low of 80.70 in New York due to growing pessimism over U.S. economic outlook following the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. data.

European Central Bank Governing Council member George Provopoulos said ‘Greece will be able to repay debt in full without reprofiling if sticks to EU/IMF programme’. European Central Bank governing council member Nout Wellink said ‘he’s fully confident Greece will meet conditions to get IMF payment next month’. International Monetary Fund’s acting chief John Lipsky said ‘Greek loan program doesn’t contemplate debt restructuring’. At an emergency meeting, party sources said Greek political leaders failed to reach consensus on new, harsher austerity measures to pull the country out of its debt crisis and convinced skeptical investors could avoid default.

In other news, the group of eight leader agreed in G8 meeting held in France that the global economic recovery was becoming more self-sustained, but rising commodity prices was still a concern which was hampering further growth. The G8 communique stated Europe, U.S. and Japan all aimed for sustainable public finances. Italy Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi also said G8 did not discuss issue of replacing Bini Smaghi on ECB board. And Obama said he wanted a strong euro but eurozone did not because it hurts exports.

On the data front, U.K. May GfK Consumer confidence came in at -21 versus economists’ expectation of -31. Japanese April national CPI and core national CPI came in at 0.3% and 0.6% respectively, same at economists’ forecasts. Eurozone May business climate, economic, industrial and consumer sentiment came in at 0.99, 105.5, 3.9 and -9.8 versus expectations of 1.20, 105.7, 5.1 and -12.0 respectively. U.S. April personal spending rose 0.4% after a revised 0.5% in March that was smaller than previously estimated. U.S. April personal income came in at 0.4% versus forecasts of 0.4%. U.S. April PCE index m/m and y/y came in at 0.3% and 2.2% repectively with April core PCE index m/m and y/y came in at 0.2% and 1.0% respectively. U.S. May University of Michigan survey final came in at 74.3 versus forecast of 72.4.

Data to be released next week include:

New Zealand April exports and imports and trade blaances; German retail sales; Canadian current account and GDP on Monday. U.K and U.S. markets will be closed on Monday.

Japan manufacturing PMI, household spending, unemployment rate, industrial production, construction orders and housing starts; Swiss GDP; German unemployment change and unemployment rate; Eurozone HICP flash and unemployment rate; U.S. Midwest manufacturing, SnP/CS home price, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence on Tuesday.

Swiss retail sales and PMI; German manufacturing PMI; Eurozone manufacturing PMI; U.K. manufacturing PMI, mortgage approval; U.S ADP employment, construction spending and ISM manufacturing on Wednesday.

U.K. PMI construction; U.S. jobless claims and durable goods (revised) on Thursday.

German services PMI; Eurozone services PMI; U.K. services PMI; U.S. average hourly earnings, non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate and ISM manufacturing on Friday.

Daily Technical Outlook on USD/JPY

USD/JPY – 80.86… Despite dlr’s erratic rise to 82.21 initially last
week, failure to penetrate previous week’s high at 82.23 n subsequent weakness
due to the greenback’s broad-based decline in the latter part of the week sent
the pair lower to 80.70 in Fri’s NY session, suggesting further choppy consolida
tion below 82.23 wud continue.

Looking at the daily chart, as technical indicators are now turning down,
suggesting unless price is able to pierce through 82.23 res, then downside bias
remains for decline fm Apr’s 85.53 high to pressure price twd 80.16, a daily
close below there wud bring subsequent weakness twd this month’s low at 79.57
but break needed to signal aforesaid fall fm 85.53 to retrace the strg rise fm
Mar’s record low of 76.25 has resumed n extend twd 78.97 (70.7% r). A breach of
82.23 confirms pullback fm 85.53 over n yields gain twd 83.25 (61.8% r).

Today, as price is trading below the 21-hr & 55-hr emas, downside bias
remains for weakness to 80.34 but bullish convergences on hourly indicators shud
keep dlr abv 80.16. Abv 81.45 anytime signals temp. low is made, 81.70/80 later.

Daily Technical Outlook on GBP/USD

GBP/USD – 1.6488 … Despite falling in tandem with euro initially last
week n extending its recent steep descent fm April’s 16-month peak of 1.6747 to
1.6055 last Tuesday, the British pound staged a spectacular rally to as high as
1.6515 Friday due partly on cross-buying of sterling.

The fact that price has retraced over 61.8% r (1.6483) of aforesaid fall
n Friday’s close near the day’s high suggests correction fm 1.6747, although
strg, has ended last week at 1.6055 n choppy consolidation with upside bias
still remains, a daily close abv 1.6622 wud signal MT erratic rise fm 2010 low
at 1.4228 (May) has resumed, then re-test of 1.6747 wud be seen later. In view
of this revised bullish view, buying cable on dips twd 1.6379 (Fri’s low) this
week is favoured in anticipation of further headway to 1.6610/10 n only a daily
close below 1.6336 wud abort bullish scenario, risk weakness twd 1.6210.

Today, expect initial consolidation b4 extending recent upmove twd 1.6575
, however, as both 15-min & hourly indicators wud display bearish divergences,
reckon 1.6610/20 wud hold. Below 1.6404 wud risk 1.6379 but 1.6336 shud hold.

Daily Technical Outlook on EUR/USD

EUR/USD – 1.4293… Although euro extended its steep descent fm May’s 17-
month high of 1.4940 to as low as 1.3968 last Monday, strg buying interest
emerged n lifted the pair, price then ratcheted higher in the latter part of the
week n later rallied strongly on Friday to 1.4315, the single currency extended
aforesaid rise to 1.4335 in NZ this morning b4 retreating.

Looking at the bigger picture, despite the corrective price patterns fm
1.3968, the fact that cable has retraced over 61.8% r of its decline fm Apr’s 16
-month peak of 1.6747 last Fri n euro has not even reached its min. 38.2% r obj.
at 1.4339, either the single ccy will follow suit later this week or wud resume
aforesaid decline fm 1.4940, the neutral readings on daily indicators are not
giving much clues to which direction price will be headed in next few days. A
daily close abv res 1.4423 wud yield subsequent headway to 1.4569 (61.8% r) n
below 1.4067 wud signal decline has possibly resumed, yield re-test of 1.3968.

Today, as long as sup at 1.4217 holds, further gain to 1.4345 is seen but
reckon 1.4395 wud cap upside. Below 1.4217 wud risk 1.4184, break, 1.4147/52.

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